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Oscars: Final Voting Commences for Five Days; Which Unexpected Winners Could Emerge?
Apr
The Oscars Predictions – Poor Things – Killers of the Flower Moon – American Fiction – Oppenheimer – Barbie
Variety’s Awards Circuit section serves as the go-to source for all awards news and related content year-round. Curated by Variety’s senior awards editor Clayton Davis, it features official predictions for upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards ceremonies. These predictions, reflecting the current standings in the race, do not represent personal preferences but rather provide insights into the competitive landscape. As with other formal and informal polls, competition dynamics remain fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are refreshed every Thursday.
Explore the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies through the links below:
- OSCARS
- EMMYS
- GRAMMYS
- TONYS
Awards Circuit Column (Updated Feb. 22, 2024): The moment of truth has arrived. Final Oscar nomination voting is now open to nearly 10,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
The BAFTA Awards showered praise on “Oppenheimer” with seven wins, closely followed by commendable performances from “Poor Things” and “The Zone of Interest.”
Despite losing a BAFTA to the non-Oscar nominated “Poor Things,” “The Creator” emerged victorious at the Visual Effects Guild.
Both “Barbie” and “Poor Things” clinched victories at the Costume Designers Guild, with the latter also securing a BAFTA. Will there be a division of honors between the two?
With the upcoming SAG Awards this weekend, several races, including lead actor (featuring contenders Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy), lead actress (with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone in contention), and adapted screenplay (potentially influenced by the best cast ensemble award), could see clearer outcomes. The three-way battle between BAFTA-winning “American Fiction,” the category-switched “Barbie,” and the frontrunner “Oppenheimer” adds intrigue to the mix.
Current predictions for winning films: “Oppenheimer” (6); “The Holdovers” (2); “Anatomy of a Fall” (1); “Barbie” (2); “The Creator” (1); “Killers of the Flower Moon” (1); “Maestro” (1); “Poor Things” (1); “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (1); “The Zone of Interest” (1)
Upcoming key dates: Sci-Tech Oscars / SAG Awards final voting closes at noon PST / WGA Awards final voting begins (Feb. 23); 30th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards (Feb. 24); Film Independent Spirit Awards / Producers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 25); Final Oscars voting closes at 5:00 pm PT (Feb. 27)
Check out Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions across all categories.
The 96th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 10, 2024.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
Best Picture “American Fiction” (MGM) “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Maestro“ (Netflix) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) *** “Past Lives” (A24) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
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Director “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) “The Zone of Interest” (A24) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Justine Triet” (Neon)
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Actor in a Leading Role “Maestro” (Netflix) “Rustin” (Netflix) “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “American Fiction” (MGM)
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Actress in a Leading Role “Nyad” (Netflix) “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) “Maestro” (Netflix) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Actor in a Supporting Role “American Fiction” (MGM) “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Actress in a Supporting Role “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) “Nyad” (Netflix) “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
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Original Screenplay “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) *** “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) “Maestro” (Netflix) “May December” (Netflix) “Past Lives” (A24)
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Adapted Screenplay “American Fiction” (MGM) *** “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
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Animated Feature “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho) “Elemental” (Pixar) “Nimona” (Netflix) “Robot Dreams” (Neon) “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
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Production Design “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) *** “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Cinematography “El Conde” (Netflix) “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Maestro” (Netflix) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) *** “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Costume Design “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) *** “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Film Editing “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) *** “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Makeup and Hairstyling “Golda” (Bleecker Street) “Maestro” (Netflix) *** “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) “Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
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Sound “The Creator” (20th Century Studios) “Maestro” (Netflix) “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) “The Zone of Interest” (A24) ***
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